US military fight against Houthis is stuck in a dangerous stalemate

• The Houthis have spent the past year threatening key sea routes with missiles and drones.
• The US-led military response has been unable to effectively prevent rebels from attacking ships.
• A more aggressive approach is unlikely to be adopted, which would bring the conflict to a stalemate.

On a blue-sky day last November, a helicopter carrying Houthi gunmen descended on a commercial shipping ship in the Red Sea. The rebels jumped in, took control of the ship and took the crew hostage. They are still in captivity in Yemen.

The dramatic kidnapping of the Galaxy Leader, which was captured on videocatapulted the Houthis into the global spotlight. In the year since then, the rebels have Key shipping routes in the Middle East threatened with missiles and drones, disrupting maritime trade.

The US military has led a Western naval coalition. to the battle against the Houthis to stop their relentless attacks, but a year of intense fighting has brought the United States no closer to ending the threat posed by the rebels and, for now, a more aggressive approach does not appear to be the desired path.

“We are not looking for a military solution in Yemen at this particular moment,” the US special envoy for Yemen, Tim Lenderking, told Business Insider in a recent interview. He said pursuing that outcome could bring more devastation to a country torn apart by years of war.

“Pursuing that would subject Yemen to more years of death, destruction and military conflict,” he explained, arguing that “it is essential to consider the impact on Yemeni civilians, the impact on Yemen’s economy and infrastructure, the ability to move supplies.” The ability of commercial goods to enter Yemen.”

That measured approach to the current Houthi crisis leaves the U.S. military engaged in combat operations without a clear path to victory.

“The threat still persists”

The Houthis have launched more than 130 attacks against military and civilian vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden in a campaign that Iran-backed rebels The claim is related to the war between Israel and Hamas. They have attacked several commercial ships, sinking two of them and hijacking one (the Galaxy Leader), and killed four sailors.

Merchant shipping through the Red Sea typically accounts for up to 15% of global maritime trade, the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency said in a report earlier this year. However, continued Houthi attacks have caused a notable decline in activity along that critical path, forcing ships to make longer, more expensive voyages around Africa.

US warships and aircraft operating in the region have routinely been tasked with intercept Houthi missiles and drones in defense of key sea routes. The military has also carried out airstrikes against rebels in Yemen, targeting their weapons, launchers and other facilities.

The Pentagon has said these efforts are destined to degrade the Houthis’ capabilities, but the rebels still retain the ability to attack ships. Just this month, for example, they have launched attacks against a commercial ship and several american destroyersalthough they have yet to achieve a hit on a warship.

Analysts of the group of experts of the International Institute for Strategic Studies said last month that, although Houthi attacks on commercial ships have decreased, the response (including US, British and Israeli attacks) over the past year has been insufficient.

“The threat still remains, and there doesn’t seem to be much to diminish it,” retired Gen. Joseph Votel, who oversaw military operations in the Middle East in the 2010s as commander of U.S. Central Command, told BI.

He said U.S. military operations “have clearly focused on trying to defend ourselves and go after launch sites, production sites, storage sites, maybe some command and control sites, but none of that seems to deter the Houthis at all.” .

Related stories

Limited options

Some analysts have said the United States should consider a more aggressive response to the Houthis, including greater efforts to cut off the flow of weapons and capabilities from Iran.

Brian Carter, Middle East portfolio manager at the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project, wrote in a analysis earlier this month that “allowing the Houthis to prolong their gradual escalation campaign is a much more dangerous political option for the United States in the long term than a more decisive military effort would have been.”

The Navy admiral who oversees naval operations in the Middle East has said that military action alone it won’t be enough to stop the rebels. “The solution will not come at the end of a weapons system,” Vice Admiral George Wikoff, who heads US Naval Forces Central Command, stressed at a think tank event in August.

A diplomatic solution, however, remains unclear. The Houthis have linked their actions to the Gaza war, but it remains to be seen whether a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will force them to stop their attacks. the rebels did not adhere to a lull in fighting last fall.

without apparent end in sightThe conflict has raised real concerns about sustainability. Over the past year, the Navy has fired hundreds of ammunition in its operations in the Middle East, costs more than 1.8 billion dollars and draining the Pentagon of key missiles that are expensive to acquire.

Votel, now a distinguished national security researcher at the Middle East Institute think tank, said the United States can continue sending warships into the fight, but the conflict is impacting other priorities within the Pentagon’s national security strategy, such as China’s growing military capabilities.

There are no signs that US naval activity will slow down. Officials stress that Washington will continue to act against the Houthis to stop their attacks. Even like some Warships left the Middle East. Earlier this month, other vessels have already moved to take your place.

“We are committed to ensuring freedom of navigation and ensuring that ships can pass through the Red Sea,” said Lenderking, the US envoy.

“Of course, much of the international trade that flows through the Red Sea has been adapted towards alternatives,” he added. “But we believe that the fact that a non-state actor is attacking the international community in this way is not something that we or the international community should respect.”

But for now, it’s unclear what will make this stop.